I doubt Trump will understand this equation but ΔO_BSOH > 0 = f(f(O)) > f(O) is worth understanding.
Δ (delta) just means “change,” so ΔO_BSOH > 0 means oil disruption is increasing due to a Strait of Hormuz blockade.
f(O) is the first-order effect, the market’s immediate response, prices go up.
f(f(O)) > f(O) is the second-order effect, that response gets amplified again pushing prices even higher.
Ghalibaf’s point is simple: if Hormuz disruption worsens, price increases won’t be linear, they’ll compound.
In plain terms, if you escalate with the blockade in Hormuz, gas prices won’t just rise once, they’ll surge beyond the first spike, and today’s “high” prices will look cheap.
Mike
