A few notes on the election. A massive alarm for the GOP.
First, this was a nationalized election. Candidate quality didn't matter. Candidate spending didn't matter. Local issues didn't matter. Incumbent history didn't matter. Individual scandals didn't matter. It swept in blue areas, swing areas, and red areas equally alike. The wave hit Pennsylvania judicial races, Georgia public service commission race, and Virginia state legislative races as much as the higher profile races in blue areas. The wave crested like a tsunami, felt coast to coast, from the northeast to the southwest, from the midatlantic to the mountains, from the industrial midwest to the southern countryside.
Second, new #MAGA completely switched back off, either staying home or flipping their votes to Democrats. See hispanic precincts pretty much anywhere, the youth vote, and working class areas in general. You know who they voted for in NYC? Mamdani.
Third, the NYC race reveals the populist rebellion reaches deep w/in Democratic ranks as well, as the upstart Mamdani -- promising to tax big corporations & the rich to give universal benefits in housing, healthcare, transportation, and the cost of food -- swept the young working class vote across most of the city.
Fourth, Israel is a losing issue, signified when NYC, the most Jewish city in the nation, chooses a Muslim Mayor promising to arrest Bibi if he steps foot into the city. Israel is rapidly becoming a political pariah in America, and no amount of whining about it from the pro-Israel community will change that; only a reversal of policy by Bibi can mitigate this. Ackman understood this, which is why he spent the election panicking.
Fifth, there is still time for Trump to salvage 2026. The 12 point swing in 2021 did not lead to as big a sweep in 2022 as many expected. The key is which party spends the next year persuading working class voters they can, and will, provide solutions to the problems of bread-and-butter that they face. The better economic populist pitch will win over these voters in 2026 & 2028, with these voters deeply skeptical of both parties.
Mike