Why Trump’s Iran-Israel “ceasefire” won’t work (long-post):
1) It was not a ceasefire agreement, just an unconditional declaration on Twitter that neither side confirmed.
2) It was likely a deception, as everything the US/Israeli alliance has done so far have been surprise attacks.
3) Iran accepting a ceasefire with no conditions is a guaranteed recipe for disaster. Israel will feel free to act anytime & will not stop working to overthrow the government.
4) There is no path to a negotiated nuclear agreement or sanctions relief.
5) Israel and the US failed to achieve their goals of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, only inflicting damage.
When we look at this alleged ceasefire from both sides, it is completely nonsensical.
Israel’s security myths are now shattered, its population also must live with the knowledge that Iran still can inflict the unprecedented damage it has at any time. The Gaza front has no military option, the Lebanon front has calmed down but is not closed.
Israel launched an attack, got smashed and has nothing much beyond the first day to brag about.
On the other hand, Iran now knows that both the US & Israel will attack them at will, during negotiations or after claiming they will adhere to certain timeframes. If they stop, they also gain nothing & will live with the knowledge that surprise attacks can now happen at anytime.
No one was victorious & neither side can afford to stop randomly without any conditions.
There are three ways this conflict actually closes properly: Regime change in Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran or a comprehensive negotiated settlement.
Even if there is a lull in the fighting and both sides were to briefly stop, these are the three options we ultimately return to.
The timeline for the ceasefire also had two deadlines.
It is likely that the Iranian FM wrote his post seemingly confirming a ceasefire - but also not explicitly - was to try and combat the evident deception that Israel was carrying out after it halted fire at 4AM Tehran time.
Then, suddenly everyone began saying Trump’s deadline was not 4AM, but was hours later, which the Israeli PM allegedly implied.
Iran then launched 6 waves of missile strikes up until and after the alleged second deadline. Then Trump claimed the ceasefire was in effect.
Obviously Israel will bomb again, there is no way they just stop after such a massive attack.
So basically, this won’t work in one way or another. Crazy times we are in.
Mike
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BREAKING: U.S President Trump says Iran’s response was weak, thanks Iran for giving early notice about the attack and encourages Israel to seek peace:
