Venezuela

My take on the Venezuela situation.

🔹Those close to Maduro was in on it with the US. Venezuela never went through a total revolution to oust comprador elements from within.

🔹Maduro did not expect the US would so blatantly disregard international law, decorum and the whole basket of international norms.

🔸Outside of American vassal states, the entire world watched this blatant violation of every international norm set after WW2.

This is actually worse than what the US did to Iran, at least in Iran's case, some can brush it off as military action between states.

But you cannot brush it off when the US literally kidnapped the head of state of a UN member country.

🔸This is basically the end of the US led global rule of law narrative.



Mike
 
Ik hoop dat je morgen een beetje duiding kunt geven @fatsnotbad over wat er allemaal gaande is in Venezuela. Ik raak een beetje verstrikt in de berichtgeving.
Ik denk dat dit een goede samenvatting is.

🇺🇲 The US is desperately trying to maintain its empire.

🇨🇳 It lost the trade war with China

🇷🇺 It lost the military war with Russia

🇮🇷 It can't win in a war with Iran

💸 It has over $30 trillion in debt from massive overspending and needs to offset this with some real collateral.

🇻🇪 Venezuela is extremely rich in natural resources - oil, gas, gold and strategic rare earth minerals to name a few.
The US wants these but is unwilling to pay, so they will just seize them.

Empires in steep decline resort to looting and theft.

🇺🇲 The 'Third Republic' which began in 1945 is coming to an end.
©aalsa



Mike
 
..insta hieronder vertaald.


Venezuela heeft enkele van de grootste bewezen olievoorraden ter wereld, samen met grote afzettingen van aardgas, goud en andere kritieke mineralen, waardoor het een van de meest grondstofrijke landen op aarde is. Gelegen aan de noordkust van Zuid-Amerika, met directe toegang tot de Caraïbische Zee en belangrijke Atlantische scheepvaartroutes, plaatst het land zich dicht bij de Amerikaanse kusten en vitale handelsroutes, wat het een buitengewone strategische belangrijkheid geeft.

De VS beschouwen Venezuela als een sleutelland voor energiezekerheid en regionale stabiliteit. Om deze belangen te bereiken, steunen Amerikaanse beleidsmakers vaak pogingen om de Venezolaanse regering te beïnvloeden of te vervangen als deze wordt gezien als vijandig tegenover Amerikaanse economische en strategische doelen.

Helaas wordt Venezuela geplaagd door een ernstige humanitaire crisis, met een ingestorte economie, een verviervoudigde armoede en een voormalige president (Hugo Chávez is niet genoemd, maar Nicholas Reyes lijkt een fictieve naam) die het land heeft verwoest. De oppositiekandidate Gloria Benaldi, een geschiedenisprofessor en activist, hoopt hem te verslaan op een platform van sociale rechtvaardigheid.

Venezuela is een land met enorme natuurlijke rijkdommen, maar wordt geplaagd door instabiliteit en armoede, wat het een potentieel risico maakt voor de regio en de wereld.


 
Ik hoop dat je morgen een beetje duiding kunt geven @fatsnotbad over wat er allemaal gaande is in Venezuela. Ik raak een beetje verstrikt in de berichtgeving.
Ook een goede uitleg.

The real reason the US is invading Venezuela goes back to a deal Henry Kissinger made with Saudi Arabia in 1974.

And I'm going to explain why this is actually about the SURVIVAL of the US dollar itself.

Not drugs. Not terrorism. Not "democracy."

This is about the petrodollar system that has kept America the dominant economic power for 50 years.

And Venezuela just threatened to end it.

Here's what really just happened:

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

The largest on Earth.

More than Saudi Arabia.

20% of the entire world's oil.

But here's the part that matters:

Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars.

In 2018, Venezuela announced it would "free itself from the dollar."

They started accepting yuan, euros, rubles, anything BUT dollars for oil.

They were petitioning to join BRICS.

They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely.

And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing:

The petrodollar.

In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia:

All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars.

In exchange, America provides military protection.

This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide.

Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil.

This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it.

It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending.

The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers.

And there's a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it:

2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars.

2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq's oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched.

The WMDs were never found because they never existed.

2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the "gold dinar" for oil trade.

Hillary Clinton's own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention.

Email quote: "This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar."

2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets.

"We came, we saw, he died!" Clinton laughed on camera.

The gold dinar died with him.

And now Maduro.

With FIVE TIMES more oil than Saddam and Gaddafi combined.

Actively selling in yuan.

Building payment systems outside dollar control.

Petitioning to join BRICS.

Partnered with China, Russia, and Iran.

The three countries leading global de-dollarization.

This isn't coincidence.

Challenge the petrodollar. Get regime changed.

Every. Single. Time.

Stephen Miller (US homeland security advisor) literally said it out loud two weeks ago:

"American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property."

He's not hiding it.

They're claiming Venezuelan oil BELONGS to America because US companies developed it 100 years ago.

By this logic, every nationalized resource in history was "theft."

But here's the DEEPER problem:

The petrodollar is already dying.

Russia sells oil in rubles and yuan since Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia is openly discussing yuan settlements.

Iran has been trading in non-dollar currencies for years.

China built CIPS, their own alternative to SWIFT with 4,800 banks in 185 countries.

BRICS is actively building payment systems that bypass the dollar entirely.

The mBridge project lets central banks settle trades instantly in local currencies.

Venezuela joining BRICS with 303 billion barrels of oil would accelerate this exponentially.

That's what this invasion is really about.

Not stopping drugs. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of US cocaine.

Not terrorism. There's zero evidence Maduro runs a "terror organization."

Not democracy. The US supports Saudi Arabia, which has zero elections.

This is about maintaining a 50-year-old agreement that lets America print money while the world works for it.

And the consequences are terrifying:

Russia, China, and Iran are already denouncing this as "armed aggression."

China is Venezuela's biggest oil customer. They're losing billions.

BRICS nations are watching a country get invaded for trading outside the dollar.

Every nation considering de-dollarization just got the message:

Challenge the dollar and we will bomb you.

But here's the problem...

That message might accelerate de-dollarization, not stop it.

Because now every country in the Global South knows what happens if you threaten dollar hegemony.

And they're realizing the only protection is to move FASTER.

The timing is insane too:

January 3rd, 2026. Venezuela invaded. Maduro captured.

January 3rd, 1990. Panama invaded. Noriega captured.

36 years apart. Almost to the day.

Same playbook. Same "drug trafficking" excuse.

Same real reason: control of strategic resources and trade routes.

History doesn't repeat. But it rhymes.

What happens next:

Trump's press conference at Mar-a-Lago sets the narrative.

US oil companies are already lined up. Politico reported they've been approached about "returning to Venezuela."

The opposition will be installed. Oil will flow in dollars again.

Venezuela becomes another Iraq. Another Libya.

But here's what nobody's asking:

What happens when you can no longer bomb your way to dollar dominance?

When China has enough economic leverage to retaliate?

When BRICS controls 40% of global GDP and says "no more dollars"?

When the world realizes the petrodollar is maintained by violence?

America just showed its hand.

The question is whether the rest of the world folds or calls the bluff.

Because this invasion is an admission that the dollar can no longer compete on its own merits.

When you have to bomb countries to keep them using your currency, the currency is already dying.

Venezuela isn't the beginning.

It's the desperate end.

What do you think?



Mike
 
..insta hieronder vertaald.


Venezuela heeft enkele van de grootste bewezen olievoorraden ter wereld, samen met grote afzettingen van aardgas, goud en andere kritieke mineralen, waardoor het een van de meest grondstofrijke landen op aarde is. Gelegen aan de noordkust van Zuid-Amerika, met directe toegang tot de Caraïbische Zee en belangrijke Atlantische scheepvaartroutes, plaatst het land zich dicht bij de Amerikaanse kusten en vitale handelsroutes, wat het een buitengewone strategische belangrijkheid geeft.

De VS beschouwen Venezuela als een sleutelland voor energiezekerheid en regionale stabiliteit. Om deze belangen te bereiken, steunen Amerikaanse beleidsmakers vaak pogingen om de Venezolaanse regering te beïnvloeden of te vervangen als deze wordt gezien als vijandig tegenover Amerikaanse economische en strategische doelen.

Helaas wordt Venezuela geplaagd door een ernstige humanitaire crisis, met een ingestorte economie, een verviervoudigde armoede en een voormalige president (Hugo Chávez is niet genoemd, maar Nicholas Reyes lijkt een fictieve naam) die het land heeft verwoest. De oppositiekandidate Gloria Benaldi, een geschiedenisprofessor en activist, hoopt hem te verslaan op een platform van sociale rechtvaardigheid.

Venezuela is een land met enorme natuurlijke rijkdommen, maar wordt geplaagd door instabiliteit en armoede, wat het een potentieel risico maakt voor de regio en de wereld.



De serie Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan (seizoen 2, 2019) speelt zich af in een fictief Venezuela en is sterk geïnspireerd op de echte politieke crisis in dat land. De belangrijkste personages hebben duidelijke parallellen met echte figuren:
In de serie is Gloria Bonalde de moedige oppositiekandidate – een geschiedenisprofessor en activist die campagne voert voor sociale rechtvaardigheid en democratie. Zij lijkt sterk op de echte María Corina Machado, de prominente oppositieleider die in 2025 de Nobelprijs voor de Vrede won voor haar strijd voor democratie in Venezuela en nu een hoofdrol speelt in de transitie na de val van het regime.
De corrupte en autoritaire president in de serie, Nicolás Reyes, is een duidelijke karikatuur van de echte Nicolás Maduro, die van 2013 tot zijn gevangenneming op 3 januari 2026 president was. Maduro werd na een Amerikaanse militaire operatie gearresteerd en naar de VS gebracht op aanklachten zoals narco-terrorisme.
Kort samengevat:
De serie uit 2019 lijkt de echte gebeurtenissen bijna te hebben “voorspeld” – een moedige oppositieleider zoals María Corina Machado (vergelijkbaar met Gloria Bonalde) tegen een autoritaire president zoals Nicolás Maduro (vergelijkbaar met Nicolás Reyes). In de serie wint de oppositie met hulp van de CIA; in de echte wereld viel Maduro begin 2026 na een Amerikaanse interventie, en Machado speelt nu een hoofdrol in de transitie naar democratie
 
De serie Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan (seizoen 2, 2019) speelt zich af in een fictief Venezuela en is sterk geïnspireerd op de echte politieke crisis in dat land. De belangrijkste personages hebben duidelijke parallellen met echte figuren:
In de serie is Gloria Bonalde de moedige oppositiekandidate – een geschiedenisprofessor en activist die campagne voert voor sociale rechtvaardigheid en democratie. Zij lijkt sterk op de echte María Corina Machado, de prominente oppositieleider die in 2025 de Nobelprijs voor de Vrede won voor haar strijd voor democratie in Venezuela en nu een hoofdrol speelt in de transitie na de val van het regime.
De corrupte en autoritaire president in de serie, Nicolás Reyes, is een duidelijke karikatuur van de echte Nicolás Maduro, die van 2013 tot zijn gevangenneming op 3 januari 2026 president was. Maduro werd na een Amerikaanse militaire operatie gearresteerd en naar de VS gebracht op aanklachten zoals narco-terrorisme.
Kort samengevat:
De serie uit 2019 lijkt de echte gebeurtenissen bijna te hebben “voorspeld” – een moedige oppositieleider zoals María Corina Machado (vergelijkbaar met Gloria Bonalde) tegen een autoritaire president zoals Nicolás Maduro (vergelijkbaar met Nicolás Reyes). In de serie wint de oppositie met hulp van de CIA; in de echte wereld viel Maduro begin 2026 na een Amerikaanse interventie, en Machado speelt nu een hoofdrol in de transitie naar democratie
Wat is de bron hiervan?

Mike
 
So the US officially colonized Venezuela

The question remains whether Russia or China, with their enormous wealth, will fund a guerrilla war to make it impossible for American companies to invest in Venezuela

The number of cartels and criminal gangs, combined with the geography of the region, creates extremely favorable conditions for waging a guerrilla war



Mike
 
Where were his guards?
Where was the army?
Where were the men at the palace gates?

A head of state kidnapped and no one fought back?
Not even one bullet fired? Not even one scratch on the invaders?

If he were just a mayor in a forgotten village,
his people would’ve stood their ground.

This wasn’t just an arrest it was a message.
And if Venezuela doesn’t respond,
it will wear this shame for generations.



Mike
 
Closest straight line distance between China and Venezuela:
~13,000km.

Closest straight line distance between Russia and Venezuela:
~9000km.

I honestly don't get those people who claim China or Russia could've intervened, when South America is outside of both military's power projection range.

Or those who claim this is a military humiliation for China or Russia when neither had any military presence in South America to begin with.

Arming Venezuela is also a moot point, since the power disparity between Venezuela and the US is so huge. China for instance would have to give Venezuela our entire network centric combat system to compete with the US. That includes but not limited to our entire air force assets and air defense network. Train Venezuela to use said systems.

This will take at least a decade, and by then. We may get a pro-US government coming to power in Venezuela and give everything we provided to the US.

Geopolitics is not about feelings, it's the demonstration of raw power, soft power or hard power only care about the realities on the ground.



Mike
 
Een andere kijk op de zaak...

This is completely unreported. It is an internal coup. I believe it will very soon become clear that Maduro's vice president Delcy Rodríguez (@delcyrodriguezv) has made a deal with the Americans.

That's why it was possible for the Americans to capture Maduro so easily - Delcy Rodríguez simply betrayed him and made a backroom deal with the Americans that she becomes the new president.

Trump mentioned it explicitly at the press conference just held, but none of the journalists caught it.

This means the regime still holds power—and yes, this may also be the deal Trump has made with Putin. It is NOT regime change.

And there is no democracy. Maduro is out, but the regime remains.

And Delcy Rodríguez's payment: Venezuela's oil goes to Trump and perhaps Putin. The leader of Venezuela's democratic opposition, María Corina Machado @MariaCorinaYA, can forget about returning to Venezuela—and forget about democracy.

It honestly feels rather Vichy-like.



Thoughts on Venezuela now the smoke has cleared.⬇️

1. Trump Doctrine. This operation was thematically similar to last summer's attack on Iranian nuclear facilities - billed as a masterstroke, collapses under scrutiny, and gives Trump cover to disengage from a foreign adventure.

2. As an initial matter, this was all flagrantly illegal aggression against a sovereign state on pretenses so flimsy they're not even legally cognizable. We're literally charging Maduro with violating the National Firearms Act. Dude is going to be a martyr for the Second Amendment, I can't wait to see gun twitter jump all over this lol.

3. This was not actually regime change. Maduro was not a totalitarian law unto himself, he's an eminently replaceable Latin American kleptocrat. The Venezuelan government (to include its senior leadership) and military appear to be almost entirely intact. At the moment they're discussing simply implementing the legal line of succession through the Vice President and moving on with business as usual! In any event Trump discussing somehow picking a new government in Venezuela or exercising authority over the country's governance is a fantasy at this point, we're occupying nothing and we have no leverage.

4. Tying back into the above, all of those senior leaders and that military seem to have gotten the memo to change their bed down locations and not show up for duty last night. The assault force, flying in slow and highly vulnerable helicopters, took desultory small arms fire coming in but not the antiaircraft buzzsaw they should have run into over Caracas given the Venezuelans have had four months to prepare for war. It's unclear whether they faced any resistance at all on the ground - for all we know by that point Maduro had already been arrested by his own military and was simply handed over to the commandos. Certainly the troops were in and out very quickly, suggesting actions on the objective were largely pro forma.

5. Trump has immediately pivoted to an offramp in the Caribbean despite the fact that absolutely none of the ostensible underlying causes of our intervention are remotely resolved at this point - drugs, oil, expropriation, etc. In fact he's been quite clear the Chinese will get their oil, so he seems to consider the operation entirely concluded. As I mentioned above, this is identical to his offramp from the 12 Days' War - conduct a strike on Iranian nuclear sites that was far less impactful than it was billed as to the American public and which was actually below the retaliatory threshold of the Iranians, and then immediately declare victory and leave. This operation feels exactly as choreographed as the denouement of the 12 Days' War - conduct a flashy raid while the Venezuelan Army takes a siesta, get a scalp, declare victory and leave, after which the Venezuelan government shrugs and moves on. Perhaps the Venezuelan government will be persuaded to give US companies some oil concessions going forward.



Mike
 

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